长波理论、创新与中国经济周期分析

在熊彼特看来，创新是经济繁荣的唯一原因。本文通过对英国技术创新和经济增长历史数据的分析，发现技术创新与经济增长之间有相互决定、相互影响的关系。按照这一发现，通过研究中国目前的经济增长和技术创新情况，本文认为，中国目前正处在创新高涨、潜在增长率下滑的阶段，虽然经济增速在短期内会放缓，但技术创新在未来5～10年内对经济会有拉升作用。除了加大研发投入，中国提高潜在增长率的关键是加快经济体制改革，为创新营造良好的环境，增强市场配置资源的作用。

LONG-WAVE THEORY, INNOVATION AND ANALYSIS OF CHINESE BUSINESS CYCLE

In Schumpeter’s opinion,innovation was the only cause of the economy prosperity.Based on Schumpeter’s innovation model and reviewing the long-wave theory,this paper analyzed the historical data of technological innovation and economy growth in UK and found the inside logic of technology innovation and economic growth.By analyzing the data from 1988 to 2010 in China,this paper concluded that China was in a period of innovation boom and potential growth rate recession,which indicated an upswing in China’s economy in next 5 to 10 years due to the positive effect of innovation boom.Besides large R&D input,deepening of economic system reform was also the key to increase the potential growth rate.