实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。

THE POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE TO ACHIEVE THE DEVELOPMENT GOAL OF 2035

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China set the long range goal of reaching the level of moderately developed countries in GDP per capita by 2035. Therefore, measuring and answering whether and how to achieve the goal on schedule is of great significance for China to achieve the second centenary goal and to adhere to the “four self confidence”. Based on other economies experience of leapfroging or falling into the “middle income trap”, this paper estimates the change of Chinas potential growth rate from 2021 to 2035. First, this paper simulates and sets the growth rate of major production factors in China according to the changes of major production factors of the economies that were in the same development stage of China and have leapfrogged or fallen into the “middle income trap”. Second, using the growth accounting model of additional human capital to measure the potential growth rate of Chinas economy in the future under three different scenarios including baseline, optimism and pessimism, the possibility of Chinas 2035 development goal can be verified. Third, according to the contribution of the main factors to the potential growth rate, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to achieve the 2035 development goal as scheduled.