地方财政政策逆周期调节：财政分权还是债务增发*

财政政策工具实际操作偏离最初设计将会降低政策工具的调控效果，导致宏观经济波动加剧。针对地方政府财政政策的逆周期性调控目标，本文关注财政分权深化和政府债务增发的逆周期性效应。研究发现：地方政府财政政策总体呈现顺周期特征。财政分权程度的提高放大了地方财政政策的顺周期性。地方政府债务增发使地方财政政策呈现逆周期特征。地方政府财政政策及其收入面、支出面均呈现顺周期性，由“顺”转“逆”的债务平衡点分别为0137，0113，0209。当前绝大部分地区的债务规模都在债务平衡点之下。驱动地方政府债务逆周期调控的内在因素是官员晋升激励。晋升激励的程度越高，地方债务逆周期调控的力度就越大。但外部市场融资环境的波动削弱了地方政府债务逆周期调控的力度。本文的政策主张是，不宜过度财政分权，应该扩大地方债发行规模，促使地方财政政策逆周期调节。

COUNTER CYCLICAL ADJUSTMENT OF LOCAL FISCAL POLICY: FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION OR INCREASED ISSUANCE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT

If the actual operation of fiscal policy tools deviates from the original design, it will reduce the regulatory effect and lead to the aggravation of macroeconomic fluctuations. From the view of the counter cyclical adjustment goal of local government fiscal policy, this paper focuses on the counter cyclical effect of fiscal decentralization deepening and increased government debt issuance. The results are as follows: The fiscal policy of local government shows a pro cyclical feature. The improvement of fiscal decentralization enlarges the procyclicality of local fiscal policy. The increase of local government debt issuance makes local fiscal policy counter cyclical. The fiscal policies of local governments and their income and expenditure are pro cyclical. The debt balance points from “pro” to “counter” are 0137, 0113 and 0209 respectively. At present, the debt scales of most regions are below the debt balance point. The internal factor driving the counter cyclical regulation of local government debt is the promotion incentive of officials. The higher the promotion incentive is, the stronger the counter cyclical regulation of local government debt will be. However, the fluctuation of external market financing environment weakens the counter cyclical regulation of local government debt. The policy proposition is that it is not appropriate to excessively decentralize fiscal powers. The government should increase the scale of local government debt issuance and promote counter cyclical adjustment of local fiscal policy.