清洁能源发展对就业规模的门槛效应*——基于金融规模的视角

本文基于2008—2019年省级面板数据，检验清洁能源产业发展的就业效应，并采用面板门槛模型，分析了清洁能源产业发展对劳动力就业影响的金融规模门槛效应。实证研究表明：清洁能源发展对总体就业规模有促进作用，对传统能源行业就业规模有负向作用，并且在不同清洁能源产量地区的就业影响存在异质性；以金融规模为门槛变量时，研究发现金融规模的提高，促使清洁能源产业发展对总体就业规模的提升作用显著提高，对传统能源行业就业规模的冲击作用有所下降；从区域角度来看，清洁能源发展对劳动力就业的影响存在地区差异，表现在清洁能源发展对东西部地区总体就业规模有正向作用，对中部地区则为负向作用。基于此，从完善政策激励机制、金融部门提高支持力度、地方政府因地施策等方面提出政策建议，以充分发挥清洁能源产业发展在就业创造和能源结构优化中的促进作用。

THE THRESHOLD EFFECT OF CLEAN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT ON EMPLOYMENT——Based on the Perspective of Financial Scale

Based on the 2008-2019 provincial panel data, this paper examines the employment effect of the development of the clean energy industry, and uses the panel threshold model to analyze the financial scale threshold effect of the development of clean energy industry on labor employment. Empirical research shows that: clean energy development promotes the overall employment scale, has a negative effect on the employment scale of the traditional energy industry, and has heterogeneity in the employment impact in different clean energy production regions; when financial scale is used as the threshold variable, it is found that the increase in financial scale has promoted the development of the clean energy industry and has significantly increased the overall employment scale, and the impact on the employment scale of the traditional energy industry has decreased; from a regional perspective, the impact of clean energy development on labor employment differs across regions. The difference is reflected in the fact that the development of clean energy has a positive effect on the overall employment scale in the eastern and western regions, while it has a negative effect in the central region. Based on this, policy recommendations are made from improving policy incentive mechanisms, increasing support from the financial sector, and local governments implementing policies in accordance with local conditions, so as to give full play to the role of clean energy industry development in job creation and energy structure optimization.