我国金融“脱实向虚”的综合判断与分析*

本文界定了金融“脱实向虚”的内涵，设计了研判金融“脱实向虚”的挂钩变量和标准。本文以1990—2019年78个国家为样本的实证研究显示：2012年我国金融出现“脱实向虚”，2012—2014年处于低度“脱实向虚”状态，2015—2018年出现了中度“脱实向虚”，2019年又回落到低度“脱实向虚”，但未来5年金融杠杆会回升。这意味着未来经济运行仍将面临高杠杆带来的系统性金融风险，以及金融杠杆波动性不断加剧给经济增长带来更大的负面冲击。宏观调控的政策取向和首要任务仍是“降杠杆”和“稳增长”。针对该形势，本文提出：一是亟须建立金融“脱实向虚”的审慎监管机制，将金融杠杆作为金融“脱实向虚”的审慎监管政策工具，将均衡金融杠杆作为研判金融“脱实向虚”的标准，前瞻性地引导金融回归服务实体经济的本位职能。二是改革现有存款基准利率的“双轨制”，实施货币政策“锁短放长”的创新性操作来消除导致金融“脱实向虚”的政策诱因。

THE SITUATION AND JUDGMENT OF THE FINANCE SHIFTING FROM REAL ECONOMY TO VIRTUAL ECONOMY IN CHINA

Based on the definition of finance shifting from real economy to virtual economy, this paper puts forward its judgment standard and degree range. An empirical study of 78 economies from 1990 to 2018 shows that from 2012 to 2014, China was in a mild state of finance shifting from the real economy to the virtual economy, from 2015 to 2018 in a moderate state, then back to the mild state in 2019, but the financial leverage is expected to rise again in the following five years. This indicates that China's micro economy continues being faced with heavy pressure of systemic risk caused by high financial leverage and the future micro control policy orientation remains to focusing on maintaining the growth while reducing the leverage level. In view of this situation, this paper puts forward some suggestions as follows. First, a prudential supervision mechanism of finance shifting from real economy to virtual economy should be established, in which financial leverage should be used as a prudential regulatory policy tool and balanced financial leverage should be used as a standard, so as to guide finance to return to the standard function of serving the real economy in a forward looking way. Second, the current benchmark deposit interest rate should be reformed and the monetary policy of locking up short term liquidity and releasing long term liquidity should be implemented, to eliminate the policy factors that may cause finance shifting from real economy to virtual economy.