老龄化如何影响我国家庭消费支出——来自中国综合社会调查的证据

基于中国综合社会调查（CGSS)的数据，本文谨慎定义老龄家庭后实证检验了老龄化对我国家庭消费支出的影响。研究发现，老龄化将使家庭消费支出显著下降并对大多数消费分项支出产生较大负面影响，同时会大幅提升家庭医疗服务支出；收入是老龄化影响家庭消费的重要中间变量。基于城乡分类子样本研究发现，乡村家庭受老龄化冲击异常严重，乡村医疗服务供给存在较大缺口。基于分层的城镇子样本回归发现，老龄化对城镇家庭消费的冲击集中体现在较低分位家庭。

HOW AGING EFFECTS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION——Evidences from China Household Survey Data

Based on the data from Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), this paper empirically studies the effects of aging on household consumption in ChinaThe results show that aging can significantly reduce average total expenditure per household and it has a huge negative impact on most categories of consumer spendingIt also significantly increases household medical spendingMoreover, income is an important intermediate variableBased on regression analysis of urban and rural areas, this paper finds that rural households are more seriously affected by aging than urban households and there is a huge gap in medical insurance for the elderly in rural areasFurther quantile regression analysis based on the urban households shows that the impact of aging on household consumption is mainly reflected in middle and low quantile urban households