京津冀雾霾污染与产业结构、城镇化水平的空间效应研究

京津冀地区是全国雾霾污染的重灾区。本文分析了京津冀地区13个城市的雾霾污染空间相关性，发现其具有显著的空间溢出效应，呈现出“高—高”型集聚和“低—低”型集聚的特征。基于京津冀地区13个城市2000—2012年的面板数据，使用三种类型空间权重矩阵构建空间杜宾模型发现：京津冀雾霾污染与产业结构、城镇化水平显著相关；产业结构与其呈“倒U型”曲线，目前产业结构和城镇化水平对自身及其邻近地区的雾霾污染具有明显的加重作用；城镇化水平对邻近地区雾霾污染具有双向效应。产业结构调整优化和城镇化水平质量的提高会缓解京津冀雾霾污染，实际人均GDP、对外贸易依存度、FDI、人口密度等也会对京津冀地区及其周边地区的雾霾污染产生影响。

THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF BEIJING TIANJIN HEBEI REGION S SMOG POLLUTION,INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE AND URBANIZATION

Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is hit especially hard by the fog pollution in ChinaIt must put out more higher requirement after Xiongan New Area setting upResearch on the spatial autocorrelation of 13 cities  smog pollution in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, the results indicate that it has obvious spatial spillover effects, and it also shows the characteristics of “high high” and “low low” agglomerationBased on the panel data of 13 cites in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region from 2000 to 2012 years, using three kinds of spatial weight matrices, we build a Durbin modelResult that the smog pollution is significant relation with industrial structure and urbanization under the background of coordinated development of Beijing Tianjin HebeiThere is a “inverse U shape” curve relationship between the smog and industrial structure, which mean that industrial structure and urbanization will aggravate smog pollution of itself and its neighborhoods, while urbanization has the positive and negative effects to smog pollution of its neighborhoodsWith the optimizing of industrial structure and the higher quality of urbanization, it will improve smog pollution in Beijing Tianjin Hebei regionThe real GDP per capita, FDI, dependent on foreign trade and population density will also imposed positive and negative effect on smog pollution in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and its neighborhoods