中国金融与经济周期的测度与分析——兼论双重周期中的政策选择

本文采用了更为匹配样本数量的中低频域分析和拐点分析方法来研究中国的金融周期。从单个变量的识别结果来看，信贷、信贷与GDP比例、M2和房地产价格均是识别中国金融周期的重要变量，而股价并非识别中国金融周期的代表性变量。综合的金融周期实证表明，金融周期的确是与传统经济周期所不同的一种内生的经济现象。金融周期普遍比用GDP识别出来的传统经济周期的持续期更长、振幅更大。中国的金融周期是先行于实体经济周期的。金融周期下行会对实体经济的复苏带来负面影响。宏观政策需要严格把握政策力度，确保双周期的平稳过渡。

EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON THE CHINAS FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CYCLES——Policy Options on the Double Cycles

This paper applies more matched sample and low frequency domain analysis method to study China's financial cycle. We find credit, credit/GDP, M2 and real estate prices, not the stock prices, are important variables to identify China's financial cycle, and the financial cycle is indeed an endogenous economic phenomenon that differs from the traditional economic cycle. The financial cycle is generally longer and larger than the traditional economic cycles identified by GDP. Financial cycle downturn may bring harm to the recovery of real economy. Macro policies need to ensure the smooth transition of the double cycle. The primary objective of monetary policy should be to ensure the stability of the financial system, maintains a neutral relative tight state to ensure the smooth transition of the peak inflection point of the financial cycle.