中国地方政府债务可持续、财政空间与经济增长*

根据Ghosh et al（2013）财政空间理论，利用2010—2019中国省级面板数据，对中国省级政府债务可持续、财政空间和经济增长之间的关系及其机制进行了研究。结果表明，中国个别省份出现了财政疲劳现象，要把控好债务风险雷区，但各地区债务限额存在异质性，在不损害可持续性的情况下，大部分地方政府有足够的“回旋余地”实施财政刺激政策。我国省级政府的财政空间和经济增长之间存在倒“U”型关系，即当政府负债率高于财政空间的临界点（或较低的财政空间）时开始阻碍经济增长，因此，需要通过降低政府负债率实现更高的增长。进一步研究发现，政府债务影响经济增长最重要的渠道是公共投资和私人投资，全要素生产率、储蓄和长期真实利率也是政府债务影响经济增长的重要渠道，而长期名义利率未能成为政府债务影响经济增长的渠道。

DEBT SUSTAINABILITY，FISCAL SPACE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF CHINA'S LOCAL GOVERNMENT

Based on the provincial data from 2010 to 2019 and the fiscal space theory of Ghosh et al（2013），this paper studies the relationship and its mechanism among government debt sustainability，fiscal space and economic growthThe results show that fiscal fatigue has occurred in some provinces in China，which requires special vigilance to control minefield of the debt riskHowever，the debt limit in different regions is heterogeneousMost local governments have enough “leeway” to implement fiscal stimulus without damaging sustainabilityThere is an inverted “U” relationship between the fiscal space of provincial governments and economic growth in China，that is，when the government debt ratio is higher than the critical point of fiscal space （or lower fiscal space），it begins to hinder economic growthTherefore，it is necessary to achieve higher growth by reducing the government debt ratioThe mechanism test results show that the most important channels for government debt to affect economic growth are public investment and private investment Total factor productivity, savings and long term real interest rate are also important channels for debt to affect growth，while long term nominal interest rate has not become the channel for debt to affect growth