“外升内贬”背景下的人民币汇率形成机制改革

自2006年底至今,人民币对外升值与对内贬值并存的现象引人关注。本文从购买力平价、巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应、定量宽松与输入性通胀等角度对人民币"外升内贬"的现象进行了解释。在"外升内贬"与美元汇率持续走低的背景下,中国政府应如何选择人民币汇率形成机制呢?本文在剖析各种机制优缺点的基础上,通过引入一个评估框架,对各种人民币汇率形成机制进行了综合评价。评价结果显示,从当前的汇率机制逐渐过渡至BBC制度,将是中国政府的最优选择。

THE REFORM OF RMB EXCHANGE RATE MECHANISM UNDER EXTERNAL APPRECIATION AND INTERNAL DEPRECIATION

The phenomenon of RMB's external appreciation and internal depreciation has aroused significant attention since the end of 2006.This paper tries to explain the phenomenon through 3 perspectives,i.e.purchasing power parity,Balassa-Samuelson effect,and quantitative easing and imported inflation.What RMB exchange rate mechanism should the Chinese government choose under the background of softening USD? First,the strengths and weaknesses of various mechanisms are analyzed.Then,a comprehensive appraisal framework is established to give a holistic evaluation.The result shows that the best choice for Chinese government is to transit from the current mechanism to BBC gradually.