我国区域经济安全动态监测分析

本文在界定我国区域经济安全内涵的基础上，通过国家经济安全指标依经济区域分解法，对影响我国经济安全的重点区域进行了一次全面动态的监测评估，定量研究发现：（1）2005-2009年，我国经济安全处于中度到低度不安全状态，其中影响我国经济安全的外来风险的85%集中在东部沿海七大省（市），经济风险省域高度集中，不利于分解我国的经济不安全状态，但近5年有缓慢下降态势。（2）我国经济安全防范能力的42%来自于东部沿海七大省（市），呈现低度集中结构，但近3年有缓慢上升态势。（3）2005-2009年，七大省（市）对全国经济安全的总体影响度为68%，经济风险呈现中度集中，但近5年有逐渐下降态势。（4）广东省对全国经济安全的影响度最高（19%），江苏省第二（13%），上海市第三（11%），浙江省第四（8%），山东省第五（7%），北京市（5%）与辽宁省（5%）并列第六位。

DYNAMIC MONITORING ON CHINA’S REGIONAL ECONOMIC SECURITY

This paper defined the content of China’s regional economic security,through dividing indicators of national economic security according to different regions,monitoring and evaluating the important regions which affected the national economic security overall and dynamically.This paper found that:(1)the degree of the national economic security varied between low and moderate degree of insecurity during 2005—2009.85% of external risks which affected the national economic security were concentrated in seven provinces of east China.Economic risks showed highly concentrated,which brought negative effects on spreading risks and dissolved economic insecurity,which showed a low downward trend during recent five years.(2)42% of abilities to prevent the national economic security came from the seven provinces of east China,which showed low concentration and slowly rising trend during recent years.(3) The total influence degree on the national economic security in the seven provinces was 68%during 2005— 2009.Economic risks showed moderate concentration and the trend of gradual decline during recent years.(4)The influence degree of Guangdong province ranked first(19%),Jiangsu province ranked second(13%),Shanghai city ranked third(11%),Zhejiang province ranked fourth(8%),Shandong province ranked fifth(7%),Beijing city and Liaoning province both rank sixth(5%).