The role of forecasting in sustainability

A lack of understanding of the waste flow of durable goods complicates decision-making efforts that will increase sustainability. To address this problem, the modeling of the waste flow of durable goods is considered. Televisions are used to illustrate the requirements for forecasting and the magnitude of the associated uncertainty of the waste flow for a durable good that is impacted by technological change and/or unpredictability in field life. This example is timely due to disposal laws affecting cathode ray tubes (CRTs) and the emergence of alternate technology trajectories for televisions. The findings suggest that the reuse of lead-bearing CRT glass is worthwhile, even though flat panel TV technology will eliminate this controversial waste stream. The findings also indicate the implications of forecasting durable waste flows for decisions regarding policy, business models, required infrastructure and supply chain management.