The effects of the monetary policy regime shift to inflation targeting on the real interest rate in the United Kingdom |
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Authors: | Andreas Reschreiter |
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Institution: | 1. Kazan Federal University, 18 Kremlyovskaya Street, Kazan 420008, Russia;2. Innopolis University, 1 Universitetskaya Street, Innopolis city 420500, Russia;3. Imperial College Business School, Exhibition Road, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK;1. Texas A&M University, Mays Business School, Real Estate Research Center, 1700 Research Parkway, College Station, TX 77843-2115, United States;2. Texas A&M University, Mays Business School, Department of Finance, College Station, TX 77843-4218, United States;1. DG Research, European Central Bank, 29 Kaiserstrasse, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Hesse, Germany;2. University of Brescia, Italy;3. Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland |
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Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of the monetary policy regime shift to inflation targeting on the stochastic properties of the real interest rate in the U.K. The empirical analysis suggests a constant mean of the real interest rate that shifts with the monetary policy regime change to inflation targeting in October 1992. The mean-reverting level of the real interest rate has decreased from 5.1% to 2.3% per annum with the change in monetary policy to inflation targeting. In addition, the shift in monetary policy regime to inflation targeting has reduced the volatility of the real interest rate and increased the persistence of real interest rate deviations from the mean. The results suggest that the central bank can affect the stochastic properties of the real interest rate through the choice of monetary policy regime over a long period of time. |
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