中国区域耕地赤字/盈余预测

由于区域间存在自然条件、耕地利用方式等方面的差异,导致区域耕地综合生产力不同,因此耕地保有量也表现出鲜明的时间和空间特征。本文在对耕地保有量影响因素分析的基础上,计算和预测了2002年和2010年全国及30个省、自治区、直辖市(四川省包含重庆市)的耕地最低保有量和耕地赤字/盈余。通过分析发现:各省区在人均400kg、450kg、500kg生活标准和95%、90%自给率水平下,表现出不同的耕地赤字/盈余。

Estimating deficits/surplus of the cultivated land in China's different regions

Since different regions vary in many aspects(e.g.natural conditions,approaches of utilizing cultivated land),the cultivated land in these areas shows different total factor productivity.Therefore,the conservation of the cultivated land has distinctive characteristics of time and space.Based on the analysis of the factors influencing the conservation of the cultivated land,the article calculates and estimates the minimum conservation and deficits/surplus of the cultivated land all over China and thirty areas(including some provinces,the autonomous regions and the cities administered directly by the central government) in 2002-2010.Through analysis,we find that,in view of the living standards of 400kg,450kg,500kg per capita,and the self sufficiency rate of 95% and 90%,different regions show different deficits/surplus of the cultivated land.