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我国货币需求的协整分析及其货币政策建议
引用本文:王少平,李子奈.我国货币需求的协整分析及其货币政策建议[J].经济研究,2004(7).
作者姓名:王少平  李子奈
作者单位:华中科技大学经济学院 430074 (王少平),清华大学经济管理学院 100084(李子奈)
基金项目:教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大研究项目 (01JAZJD790004 )的研究成果
摘    要:本文运用协整以及弱外生和短期因果关系检验 ,对我国货币需求的长期稳定性进行实证 ,由此而产生的主要结论为 :我国货币需求的长期稳定性 (协整 )依赖于时间趋势 ,货币政策目标变量为M1,实际货币政策效应主要体现在促进经济增长。我国货币需求和利率是关于协整向量的弱外生变量。基于上述结论所提出的政策建议为 :当前的货币政策重点应转向于防范通胀

关 键 词:货币需求  协整  弱外生  货币政策效应

The Cointegration Analysis of China's Monetary Demand and the Monetary Policy Proposals
Wang Shaoping.The Cointegration Analysis of China''''s Monetary Demand and the Monetary Policy Proposals[J].Economic Research Journal,2004(7).
Authors:Wang Shaoping
Abstract:This paper, through testing stochastic cointegration and weak exogenous as well as short run Granger causality, empirically studies the long run steadiness of money demand in China. The main conclusions are: the long run steadiness of money demand in the case of China should be measured by a stochastic cointegration with time trend, the objective variable for the monetary policy in China is m 1 , the real effect of monetary policy is mainly reflected on the economic growth, both money demand and interest rate are weak exogenous variables for the cointegrating vector. Based on the above conclusions, the present monetary policy of China should undergo a change to prevent the economic framework from the inflationary pressures.
Keywords:Money Demand  Cointegration  Weak Exogenous  Effect of Monetary Policy
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