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电力短缺、短期措施与长期战略
引用本文:林伯强.电力短缺、短期措施与长期战略[J].经济研究,2004(3).
作者姓名:林伯强
作者单位:亚洲开发银行
摘    要:1 999年中国电力过剩 1 0 % ,而 2 0 0 4年估计将短缺 7%。电力规划应该根据GDP与电力需求间的长期关系制定 ,以避免大量过剩或短缺 ,并尽可能减少冲击。本文建议建立有效的电力短缺早期预警系统 ,制定全国的系统规划。规划要着眼于电力需求与GDP增长间的长期关系 ,并考虑“电力先行”的增长战略

关 键 词:电力短缺  电力需求  结构调整  投资需求  环境影响

Power Shortage,Short-run Response,and Long-run Consideration
Lin Boqiang.Power Shortage,Short-run Response,and Long-run Consideration[J].Economic Research Journal,2004(3).
Authors:Lin Boqiang
Institution:Asian Development Bank
Abstract:With a large power surplus of 10% in 1999, the People's Republic of China (PRC) is estimated to have a power shortage of 7% in 2004. The “power first" growth strategy of keeping some surplus capacity to meet unexpected power demand is necessary in supporting fast and stable economic growth. The power planning should be based on the long run relationship between gross national products (GDP) and power demand. This could avoid large surplus or shortage and therefore, minimize their impacts. It is therefore, suggested that (i) an effective “early warning system" for power shortage be established, and (ii) a national system planning based on the long-run relationship between power demand and GDP growth and taking into account the “power first" growth strategy be carried out urgently.
Keywords:Power Shortage  Power Demand  Structural Changes  Investment Requirements  Environmental Impact
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