高投资、宏观成本与经济增长的持续性

过去20多年,中国高投资—高增长的发展模式以宏观成本积累为代价。增长是中国今后相当长时期的主题,但是以高成本为代价的高投资—高增长发展模式的持续性如何?本文从理论上说明了中国高投资的政府激励机制及宏观成本边界和高成本增长的临界点;进而指出,在开放经济中,资本流动、外部需求和供给冲击构成高成本投资模式的现实约束,政府必须权衡粗放式高增长的宏观收益和成本,制定相应的政策来约束低效率的投资行为,实现全社会的福利优化。

High Growth of Investment,Macro-cost and the Sustainability of Economic Growth

China has paid high accumulated macro-cost for the high growth of both investment and economy since the last two decades.Growth must be the main theme of China for a relatively long time.However,what's the scenario for the development pattern of high economic growth with high investment growth? This paper analyses the macro-cost frontier of high investment growth and the critical value of growth with high cost.Then the paper points out that in the open economy,capital flow,external demand and supply shock will constrain the high-cost investment pattern.Therefore the government should balance the macro-revenue and macro-cost of high growth with extensive mode,restrict the low-efficiency investment and try to optimize the welfare of whole society.