货币升值的后果——基于中国经济特征事实的理论框架

本文在一个贸易品/非贸易品两部门模型中,讨论了真实汇率外生条件下部门之间全要素生产率变化对产业结构与贸易余额的影响。我们发现,在保持名义有效汇率固定与国内物价水平稳定的货币政策组合下,市场经济体制改革所带来的贸易品部门相对非贸易品部门更快的全要素生产率进步所带来的不仅是经济增长,还会造成(1)工业/服务业产业结构扭曲;(2)贸易顺差扩大;(3)工资水平下降,并阻碍了农村劳动力向城市转移;(4)工资下降与利润率上升,收入分配恶化。解决上述问题的关键在于人民币汇率水平调整与非贸易品部门市场化改革和全要素生产率提高。

The Consequences of Currency Appreciation:A Theoretical Model Based on Chinese Stylized Facts

We develop a tradable-nontradable model in which real exchange rate is exogenous and tradable sector is experiencing faster TFP growth that that of nontradable sector. The model suggest that under the policy combination of fixed nominal exchange rate and low inflation target, the relative high growth of TFP in tradable sector bring about not only economic growth, but also (1) distorted economic structure; (2) enlarging trade surplus; (3) wage depression and slowdown of transferring labor force from rural area to urban area; (4) worsening of income distribution. Currency appreciation and faster TFP growth in nontradable sector is the key to solve above distortions.