中国高储蓄率问题探究——1992—2003年中国资金流量表的分析

本文以国家统计局公布的1992—2003年中国资金流量表为基础,从收入分配和部门储蓄倾向等两个方面对居民、企业和政府等国内三个部门的储蓄率进行了比较分析。我们发现,尽管居民部门的储蓄率最高,但是,自1992年以来,它实际上呈逐步下降趋势,其主要原因在于居民部门获得的劳动报酬、财产收入和再分配收入均有所下降;企业储蓄率呈现缓缓上升趋势,主要原因并不在于企业盈利能力的提高,而在于其主要支出——对居民部门的劳动报酬支出和利息支出长期被稳定在较低的水平上;政府储蓄率在经历了上个世纪的低位徘徊之后,于2000年以后急剧上升,其主要原因在于,通过初次分配和再分配,政府的可支配收入在国民收入的分配中占据了越来越大的份额,同时政府部门的储蓄倾向也在不断提高。本文的政策建议是:为了实现以提高国内消费率为核心的经济发展战略,我国的经济运行应全面转向以改善收入分配结构、提高居民收入为重点的轨道上。为达此目的,加速财政政策向公共财政转型,增加公共支出和对居民的福利支出,在提高劳动生产率的基础上提高企业对劳动者的支付水平,应成为今后我国宏观调控的长期任务。

Anatomy of High Saving Rate of China:Analysis Based upon Flow of Funds Account of China from 1992 to 2003

In order to find out the causes of the high saving rate of China,we analyze the savings of household,enterprise and government sector respecitvely by employing flow of funds account of China from 1992 to 2003.We find the increase of national saving rate since 2000 is largely due to government sector,even though the househould is the largest contributor to high national saving and the saving rate of enterprise also much high in fact.Then we investigate the reasons of sectoral pattern of savings from two aspects:propensity to save and distribution of national income among domestic sectors.The findings may be striking.As to the causes of increase of govenrment saving,we find the propensity of government to save rise significantly stimulated by government investment,and the ratio of government disposable income to national income goes up evidently.As to household saving,we find saving rate of this sector decreased actually because of adverse income distribution while its propensity to save exhibiting clear procyclical pattern.As to high enterprise saving,it results from decrease of expenditure on wage and interest to household sector,not from increase of earnings as many people think.All these findings give us a strong policy implication:improvement of income distribution is the key to reducing national saving and accordingly stimulating consumption,and fiscal policy may be the pivotal to achieve this object.