中国经济周期特征与财政政策效应——一个基于三部门RBC模型的实证分析

本文采用随机动态一般均衡方法,将政府支出作为外生随机冲击变量,构建中国三部门实际经济周期(RBC)模型,并对改革后的中国经济进行了实证检验,从而考察中国宏观经济波动的周期特征及财政政策的效应问题。研究发现,在包含政府部门的RBC模型中,技术冲击和政府支出冲击可以解释70%以上的中国经济波动特征,中国经济波动是技术因素、供给因素和需求因素综合影响的共同产物。此外,本文证实改革后政府支出对居民消费产生了一定的挤出效应。

A Study on Business Cycle and the Effects of Fiscal Policy in China: An Empirical Study on a RBC Model with Three Sections

In this paper, we use dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method to set up a RBC model with government, make corresponding empirical applications and analyze the effects of the fiscal policy. It finds that shocks to technology and government spending can explain about 70% of the variance of China's cyclical fluctuations in this model. The fluctuations result from the impact of technology, supply and demand. Otherwise, it shows that government spending crowds out some of private consumption after reform. Consequently, while the government has implemented expansionary fiscal policy since reform especially after 1997, its effect is not obvious.