开放视角下的国家综合负债风险与市场化分担

随着中国经济金融的日益开放,中国国家综合负债的规模与结构在动态变化:一方面,国家综合负债的某些旧因素(如银行不良资产)的存在形式发生了变化,另一方面,国家综合负债的一些新因素(社保基金缺口、巴塞尔协议的顺周期影响和汇率波动导致的外汇资产损失)开始显现。从开放视角考察,中国的国家综合负债风险形势仍较为严峻。在政府承担社会性支出的基础上,更多地重视和运用市场化分担方式是化解和防范国家综合负债风险的基本途径,保持经济持续稳定增长是应对国家综合负债风险的根本保障。

China's National Comprehensive Liabilities and Market-Oriented Reform

While achieving remarkable achievements in safeguarding financial stability supported by decisive reform and opening-up measures, Chinese government now faces new daunting challenges in fending off risks related to national comprehensive liabilities. Part of traditional liabilities (such as non-performing assets of banking sector) manifest themselves in new forms, while new members(such as social security expense, potential losses resulting from the pro-cyclical effect of Basel II, and foreign exchange assets losses given depreciation of US dollars) began to unfold across the economy. As the economy becomes more market-oriented and complex, and as its rising integration into the global economy, national comprehensive liabilities make it more vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. Therefore, the resolution of these liabilities has important implications for financial stability. Beyond shouldering the necessary expenses for social development and safety, the government would make more headway on adopting market-oriented approaches to maintain strong momentum in economic growth, which would continue to serve as a strong foundation for financial stability.