中国工业化与信息化融合质量:理论与实证

本文构建完全竞争和不完全竞争条件下的工业化与信息化融合模型,将随机前沿分析方法应用于工业化与信息化融合研究,以2000-2009年中国31个省市面板数据探讨中国工业化与信息化融合质量并发现:首先,融合具有周期大约为5年的间断平衡性,信息化带动工业化路径与两者融合的相关性高于工业化促进信息化路径,工业化和信息化对各自理想水平的偏离呈交替波动等三个主要特点;其次,融合对中国转变经济增长方式、三次产业结构调整、降低单位GRP电力消费和能耗有不同程度的影响。融合水平每增加一个点(以百分计),人均GRP可增长0.06%;融合可显著减少第一产业的产值比重,促使第一产业向第二或第三产业转移;融合可减少单位地区生产总值电力消费和能源消耗,但这种影响很小,不具统计显著性。

Quality of Convergence between Industrialization and Informatization in China

In this paper,the convergence model mixed by industrialization and informatization will be proposed in both condition of perfect and imperfect completion.The methodology of stochastic frontier analysis will be applied into this research field of convergence between industrialization and informatization(CII) .Based on the panel data from 31 provinces or municipalities in China from the year of 2000 to 2009,there are two findings from the panel data analysis of Chinese CII quality.Firstly,the convergence shows the period of almost 5 years’ intermittent balance.Furthermore,the path of informatization improving industrialization makes higher contribution towards CII than the path of industrialization improving informatization.Additionally,both industrialization and informatization data represent alternate fluctuations in terms of deviation towards its ideal value,respectively.Secondly,the CII can exert different level of impact upon the transformation of Chinese economic growth,three times of industrial structure adjustments and cutting electric power consumption per GRP unit.With increasing each point of CII level,taken as a percent,the GRP per capital can increase 0.06%.CII can remarkably reduce the output value proportion of primary industry,enabling the primary industry to move to secondary industry or tertiary industry.In addition,CII can reduce energy consumption per GDP unit to some extent.However,it shows slight influence and cannot show statistical significance.