人民币升值的宏观经济影响评价

本文通过建立中国可计算一般均衡模型定量研究了人民币升值对中国经济的影响。结果表明人民币升值对中国实际GDP增长的影响不是线性变化的,对进出口影响的模拟结果与直观判断一致;人民币升值对就业不利,但下降幅度也是随着升值幅度的上升而提高。升值对城乡居民消费的影响不同,会加大城乡差距。人民币升值对不同部门的影响不同,受冲击较大的是劳动密集型的制造业。我们的基本判断是,人民币的大幅度升值对中国经济整体不利,而小幅度的升值的影响甚微。因此,既要避免大幅度的升值,又可适当地扩大汇率的浮动范围,缓解人民币升值压力。

Effects of RMB Appreciation on the Chinese Macro-economy

A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) is constructed to evaluate quantitatively the impact of the revaluation of Chinese Renminbi (RMB) on China's economy.The result indicated that the effect of appreciating RMB on the real growth rate of the GDP is not linear,but increase like quasi-exponent form.The simulation result of the impact on the Chinese export and import is consistent with the simple intuitionistic judgement; it has an adverse effect on the employment and the decrease increment in employment is up with the appreciating currency extent; its impact on the consumption of urban and rural households is quite different,and it will increase the consumption gap of the two kinds of households; its effects on industrial sectors are quite different as well.The general conclusion in this study is that large appreciation of RMB currency is quite disadvantage on China's macro-economy,the small revaluation is acceptable in the meaning of its effect on socio-economy,as a result,it will be wise to widen the change interval of RMB exchange rate in order to alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation.