中国和东盟人民币贸易结算的经济学分析

本文构建了一个三经济体的贸易模型,从贸易损失的角度分析中国和东盟地区采用人民币进行贸易结算对中国和东盟,以及对世界其他主要经济体的福利影响。分析结果表明:中国和东盟地区结成货币联盟对世界主要经济体都将产生正面效应;由于东盟地区整体技术稍低,中国和东盟结成货币联盟将使东盟贸易损失下降更多和产出增加更大,从而提升东盟地区的整体福利;中国和东盟进行人民币结算对各经济体而言,属于帕累托改进,符合激励相容原则,具备理论上的可行性;中国和东盟进行货币联盟的优势在于两大经济体之间的地缘优势和生产技术类似。

An Economic Analysis of Trade Clearing in RMB between China and ASEAN

This paper constructs a trade model of three entities to investigate the potential welfare effect of the forthcoming currency union between China and ASEAN on the world’s main economies from the perspective of reducing trading costs. Through analysis,we come to the following conclusions: Firstly,the currency union between China and ASEAN will improve the welfare of the main economies in the world;Secondly,ASEAN will experience a larger decline in trading loss and a higher growth in output owing to its lower overall technology level;What’s more,employing RMB in trade clearing between China and ASEAN is a Pareto improvement,because it satisfies the general principle of incentive compatibility for the main economies;Lastly,the superiority of the currency union lies in its geographic advantages and the similar production technologies employed by China and ASEAN.