中国养老保险制度变迁的经济效应

本文针对中国目前正在进行的社会养老保险制度变迁 ,在一般均衡框架下构建了一个两期的动态生命周期模拟模型。我们从宏观经济、微观经济生产者、微观经济消费者、经济公平和转轨代价五个方面对制度变迁的经济效应进行了模拟量化分析。分析表明 ,制度变迁将使资本量和产量增加 ,资本 -产出比提高 ,利率下降 ,工资率上升 ;两类劳动者个人效用上升 ,养老金替代率上升 ,收入分配差距缩小 ;同时发生一定转轨代价。总的来看 ,此次中国养老保险制度变迁的经济效应是正面的。

Economic Effects of the Institutional Change of China's Pension System

Targeting on the current institutional change experienced by China's social pension system, this paper constructs a two-period dynamic life cycle simulation model in a general equilibrium framework. We quantitatively simulate the economic effects of this institutional change from five different dimensions. Our analysis shows that after the institutional change, capital, output and capital-output ratio will rise, interest rate decrease and wage rate increase, individual utility improve and pension replacement rate rise, income distribution gap reduce and some transition price emerge; generally speaking, the economic effects of the institutional change of China's social pension system are positive.