中美两国可比居民储蓄率的计量:1992—2001

储蓄率是宏观经济运行中的重要指标,尤其是居民储蓄率。然而,目前中国国内使用的所有储蓄率都在不同程度上与国际惯用的储蓄率在计量方法和统计口径上不一致,因此,中国与其他国家当前的储蓄率是不可比的。本文首次使用美国NIPAs中的储蓄率计量方法和口径,重新测算了中国1992—2001年十年间的居民储蓄率,并对相应年份的美国储蓄率作适当调整,得到了目前中美最为可比的居民储蓄率。结果表明:第一,1992—2001年中美两国平均居民储蓄率的差异由25.60%降至15.87%,降低9.73个百分点,中美两国储蓄率之间并不存在普遍认为的高达30%的差异。第二,1992—2001年中国平均居民储蓄率由29.32%降至22.69%,其中,2000年和2001年的储蓄率甚至低于20%。因此,本文认为,再用30%—40%这样异常高的数据来表示中国的居民储蓄率是不合适的。

Measuring the Comparable Household Saving Rates of China and USA,1992—2001

This paper focuses on the measurement issues of household saving rate. We compare the current methodology used in China to measure saving rate with that used in the U.S. and find out significant and apparent differences in the concepts and scopes used in the measurement. Based upon these differences, we make an empirical study and recalibrate the household saving rates of the two countries. The results show that the average household saving rate of China in the period from 1992 to 2001 falls down from 29.32% to 22.69% and particularly China's saving rate is even lower than 20% in 2000 and 2001.Thus Chinese saving rate is not that extraordinarily high. Additionally, the huge gap between China's saving rate and U.S.' shrinks by 9.73 percent on average and the actual difference between the two countries is merely 15.87 percent in a comparable sense. It demonstrates that the view commonly held by most scholars that there exists an abnormal difference between China's saving rate and the U.S.' is controversial. But our results also show that household saving rates of both countries are suffering the same decreasing trend.