中国地区工业化进程的综合评价和特征分析

本文旨在从经济发展水平、产业结构、工业结构、就业结构、空间结构等多方面对我国大陆所有省级区域的工业化水平进行评价。基于经典工业化理论选定了地区工业化综合评价体系的构成指标和相应的标志值,运用层次分析法确定了各个指标的权重,采用最新的第一次经济普查数据测算出各地区工业化水平,并用主成分分析对评价结果予以检验。本文的基本结论是:2004年中国工业化进程的地区结构是一个典型的金字塔型,有向橄榄型结构演变的趋势;1995—2004年的10年中,绝大部分地区处于加速工业化阶段,但先进地区与落后地区之间的工业化差距在不断拉大;2000年以后,工业结构升级代替产业结构调整成为大部分地区工业化的主要动力。

The Synthetic Evaluation and Analysis on Regional Industrialization

The evaluation on regional industrialization is critical to catch on the core of “ China's experience". In terms of economy development, industrial structure, inner structure of industry, employment structure and urbanization, the authors give a synthetic evaluation on industrialization level of 31 Provinces. Based on the classical theory of industrialization, the authors select the index and relevant benchmark of the Synthetic Evaluation system, the weights of which being determined by hierarchy analysis, and use the data of China Economic Census to estimate the industrialization level of 31 Provinces, which is verified by Principal Component Analysis. The basic conclusion of this article is that the structure of regional industrialization is like a Pyramid in 2004, from 1995 to 2004, though industrialization of most provinces is accelerating, the gap between advanced regions and lagged regions is widening, since 2000, the upgrade of the inner structure of industry has become the key growth driver instead of the upgrade of the industrial structure.