我国出口商品结构的决定因素和变化趋势

本文通过建立一个能容纳主要事实和重要因素的分析框架,预测我国若干重要商品的出口增长及出口商品结构升级趋势。首先识别出决定出口商品结构变化的八项关键因素,以及相应的可计量指标,建立起分析模型,并用历史数据进行了检验。然后筛选出若干技术和附加值含量相对较高、可能有较大出口增长潜力的商品,用上述因素进行分析,预测其未来增长趋势。主要结论是:比较优势、国内产业基础和市场结构、参与全球分工程度是决定一国贸易增长和贸易结构的三类主要因素。我们兼得这些有利因素,在继续保持劳动密集型出口商品竞争力的同时,一些相对技术密集和高附加值商品的出口将较快增长,推动出口商品结构持续升级。研究表明,出口商品结构升级有规律可循,出口促进政策在充分理解市场力量导向的基础上因势利导,能够提高实际效果。

Determinants and Trends of China's Export Goods Structure Upgrading

By establishing an analytic framework including main facts and factors, the author made a forecast on the trends of export growth and goods structure upgrading. Firstly, the author identified 8 critical factors affecting the structure changes of export goods, specified variables, established an analytic model and tested the model with historical data. Secondly, the author screened out some types of goods with higher technologic and value-added content and greater export potential, with the factors got from the model, analyzed and forecasted the growth trend. The main conclusion is that comparative advantage, domestic industrial foundation and domestic market structure, as well as extent participating into global labor division are the main three types of factors determining the trade growth and structure. China has all the three favorable factors. In the near future, export competitiveness of labor-intensive products will be maintained, and the export of those goods with comparatively higher technologic and value-added content will grow rapidly, which will continuously promote the upgrading of export goods structure. The research shows that there are objective rules in the export goods structure upgrading, and export promoting policy can get better effects only when complying with market rules.