| 中国长期煤炭需求:影响与政策选择 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 林伯强,魏巍贤,李丕东.中国长期煤炭需求:影响与政策选择[J].经济研究,2007(2). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 林伯强 魏巍贤 李丕东 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 厦门大学经济学院金融系 361005(林伯强)，厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心 361005(魏巍贤，李丕东) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文采用协整技术研究中国煤炭需求的长期均衡关系,估计出中国煤炭需求的长期收入弹性、价格弹性、结构弹性以及运输成本弹性;预测未来长期煤炭需求并分析其对环境、煤炭供给和煤炭价格的影响;模拟解释变量不同增长率下煤炭需求的演变并给出政策选择。中国高速经济增长是煤炭需求增长的主要原因。GDP是引导煤炭需求的原因,但煤炭需求不是引导GDP增长的原因,这也说明了将GDP作为解释变量的合理性。变量模拟得出的政策选择是工业结构的调整,即便是微调,也会对煤炭需求有很大的抑制作用;煤炭出厂价格的变动对煤炭需求变动的影响不太大,但煤炭需求对运输成本相当敏感,因而煤炭的最终价格对煤炭需求影响很大。
|
| 关 键 词： | 中国煤炭需求 协整 政策模拟 政策选择 |
China's Long-run Coal Demand:Impacts and Policy Choice |
| |
| Lin Boqiang,Wei Weixian and Li Pidong.China's Long-run Coal Demand:Impacts and Policy Choice[J].Economic Research Journal,2007(2). |
| |
| Authors: | Lin Boqiang Wei Weixian and Li Pidong |
| |
| Institution: | Lin Boqiang~1,Wei Weixian~2 and Li Pidong~2 |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long run equilibrium relationship in China's coal demand using cointegrating technique. The paper also estimates the long run income elasticity, price elasticity, economic structure elasticity and transportation cost elasticity of coal demand; forecasts the long run coal demand and analyses its impacts and carries out policy simulations on the coal demand under different growth rates for various variables and offers policy suggestions. China's high economic growth rate is the main factor of rapid increase in coal demand. The Granger causality test indicates that GDP is the causation of coal demand. The policy implication from the simulation shows that a small adjustment of industrial structure would greatly impact coal demand and coal demand is very sensitive to transportation cost. |
| |
| Keywords: | China's Coal Demand Cointegrating Policy Simulation Policy Choice |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
