实现经济周期波动在适度高位的平滑化

本文主要探讨未来5—8年的中期内,中国经济周期波动有可能出现的两个新特点:一是在波动的位势上,有可能实现持续多年的适度高位运行,潜在经济增长率将在9%左右;二是在波动的幅度上,有可能实现进一步的平滑化,使经济波动保持在8%—10%的适度增长区间内。这两个特点之所以说是“有可能”,一方面因为其中包含着一定的客观因素,另一方面因为未来还面临着许多新挑战。本文从中国国情出发,根据马克思的有关论述,并综合借鉴熊彼特周期理论和现代经济周期理论的有关分析思路,着重阐明中国本轮经济周期冲击因素的特点(类型特点、形成特点和作用特点),将经济的长期增长趋势与短期周期波动统一起来进行分析。这一分析的政策含义是,需要不断加强和改善宏观调控,努力实现经济周期波动在适度高位的平滑化。

Smoothing the Business Cycles at a Moderately High Altitude

The paper analyzes two possible features of China's business cycles in the coming 5—8 years:one is that the altitude of the cycles will remain moderately high and the potential growth rate is about 9%,and the other is that the range of the cycles will be smoothed and the moderate growth range will stay between 8%—10%.These two features are so called “possible” just because they contain some certain objective factors on one hand and they have to face future challenges on the other hand.Our paper starts from China's current situation in line with Marx's related analysis and synthesizing the ideas of Schumpeter's theory of business cycles and modern business cycles theory.Then the paper strongly illuminates the features of the shocks on China's current business cycle in terms of its type,formation and impacts,integrating the analyses of long term economic growth and short term business cycles.The policy implications of the paper are that continuing to strengthen and improve the macro-regulation and endeavoring to smooth the business cycle at a moderately high altitude.