结构变化、效率改进与能源需求预测——以中国电力行业为例

本文利用宏观经济学的方法提出一个长期电力需求模型以分析影响中国电力需求的主要因素。如预期的一样 ,当各种因素受市场力量的进一步约束时 ,影响需求的各项变量之间的关系在中国经济改革以后更加稳定也更为显著。一个误差修正模型为预测中国电力总需求的短期波动提供了适合的框架。 1 978年经济改革以后 ,需求的GDP弹性估计为 0 .8左右 ,低于改革前 (1 978年以前 )。结果表明 ,虽然GDP仍是影响电力需求的最重要因素 ,但电力需求与中国的结构变化及效率改进是负相关的。这意味着对于一个快速增长的经济来说 ,GDP的高速增长并不总是伴随着高的电力需求 ,并解释了为什么 1 998年经济增长率为 7 8% ,但电力消费却只增长了 2 8%。

Structural Changes,Efficiency Improvement and Electricity Demand Forecasting

This paper uses a macroeconomic approach to develop a long run electricity demand model to analyze the main factors affecting electricity demand in the PRC. As expected, the relationship among variables are more stable and significant after the PRC' economic reforms (1978), when all factors are more responsive to market forces.The demand elasticity of GDP is estimated at about 0.8 after the 1978 PRC economic reforms, lower than the pre-reform period (before 1978). The results show that, although GDP is still the most important factor for electricity demand, the electricity demand is negatively related with structural changes and efficiency improvement in the PRC. This implies that in a fast growing economy, high GDP growth does not always go with high electricity demand and this explains why in 1998, when the PRC had an economic growth rate of 7 8%, electricity consumption grew by only 2 8%.