中国工业的技术选择与技术进步:1985—2003

本文对1985—2003年来中国工业行业的技术选择做了评估,用DEA法计算期间工业行业的技术进步(TFP)及其分解项技术变化与技术效率,对技术选择与技术进步的关系进行理论梳理和实证检验。我们发现和论证了:(1)中国工业部门在1991—1995和1999—2003年间两度有重化工业化趋势,在1993—1998年间发生了加速资本深化,1999年后,资本深化逐年趋缓。不同产权类型的资本产出比、劳动生产率和资本生产率存在很大差异;(2)工业行业在1990—1993年和1999—2003年有明显的技术进步,两个期间的技术进步主要分别归因于技术效率和技术变化;(3)国企比例或垄断程度高的行业在技术变化方面表现突出,但技术效率的退化程度令人堪忧,而竞争性强的行业技术效率改善明显,但技术变化方面表现不佳;(4)中国工业行业的技术选择(资本深化)对技术变化具有Granger促进作用(反之不成立),但技术变化不是期间技术进步的主要方面,以至于资本深化与技术进步间并不存在统计上的稳定关系。

Technology Choice and Technical Progress of China's Industries:1985—2003

This paper evaluates the technology choice of China's industries from 1985 to 2003, computes China's industries' technical progress (TFP). Based on theoretical analysis on the relationship between technology choice and technical progress, the paper, using industries' panel data, makes positive tests. Major findings and conclusions include:(1) There were two periods of industrial heavilization and chemicalization in 1991—1995 and 1999—2003, and accelerated capital-deepening in 1993—1998 and decelerated after 1999;(2) Industries saw technical progress in 1990—1993 and 1999—2003, in which period the progress owed to technical efficiency and technical change respectively;(3) Generally, industries with a high proportion of monopoly or SOEs have outstanding technical progress while weak performance in technical efficiency, and industries with intense competition are on the contrary;(4)In China's industries, there are not cointergration between technology choice(capital deepening) and technical progress or technical efficiency, which means, though capital Granger causes technical change positively(not vice versa), the effect is trivial.