西部地区的能源开发与经济增长——基于“资源诅咒”假说的实证分析

本文应用"资源诅咒"理论假说,通过1991—2006年的省际面板数据对西部地区的能源开发与经济增长之间的相关性及其传导机制进行了计量检验和分析。研究结果表明:自进入上世纪90年代以来,西部地区的能源开发与经济增长之间存在显著的负相关性,能源开发确实带来了"资源诅咒"效应;虽然实施西部大开发战略前能源开发负向作用于对外开放度、科技创新和人力资本投入,但"诅咒"效应尚未明显产生,而实施大开发后能源开发对科技创新和人力资本投入的负向作用有所增强,从而导致诅咒效应明显出现。通过进一步的实证考察,我们发现能源开发在西部主要通过其对科技创新和人力资本投入的挤出效应,以及滋生寻租和腐败而引起的政治制度弱化效应这三种间接传导途径来阻碍经济增长,其中人力资本投入是作用最强的传导因素。

Energy Development and Economic Growth in Western China:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Resource Curse Hypothesis

Based on resource curse hypothesis, this paper carries out an econometric analysis on the relationship and its transmission mechanism between energy development and economic growth with cross-province panel data over 1991—2006. Results reveal that since 1991, evident resource curse effect from energy development has really appeared as a result of the negative significantly correlation between energy development and economic growth. Though, before the implementation of the western development strategy, energy development acted negatively on openness, S&T innovation and human capital input, the effect was yet uncreated. However, after the implementation of the strategy, the effect emerged evidently as a result of the enhanced negative effect of energy development on S&T innovation and human capital input. Moreover, further tests indicate that energy development impedes economic growth mainly through three indirect transmission channels: the crowding-out effect towards human capital input and S&T innovation, and the weakening of institution aroused by rent-seeking and corruption. And among them, human capital input is the most important transmission factor.