中国潜在产出与产出缺口的估算

本文在分析比较了潜在产出的三种估算方法的基础上 ,估算出我国1 978— 2 0 0 2年间的潜在产出、产出缺口和潜在增长率。结果表明 :(1 ) 1 978— 2 0 0 2年间我国的产出缺口出现了波动水平正负交替的古典周期情形 ;(2 ) 1 995年以前 ,产出缺口波动比较剧烈而且频繁 ,1 996年特别是 1 999年以后 ,产出缺口变化较为平缓 ;(3 )从 1 999年开始 ,我国产出缺口扩大的势头明显趋缓 ,但在 2 0 0 2年出现了一些反转迹象 ,这表明 1 998年开始实施的积极财政政策在遏制经济下滑、治理经济衰退方面起到了重要作用 ;(4)根据以消除趋势法和生产函数法估算的潜在产出 ,我们可以推断 1 978— 2 0 0 2年间的平均潜在产出增长率

Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in China

After comparing the three methods of estimating potential output, the paper estimates potential output, output gap and potential growth rate for the period from 1978 to 2002 in China. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The output gap presented classical business cycle character from 1978 to 2002. (2) The output gap fluctuated markedly and frequently before 1995, but more smoothly after 1996 especially after 1999. (3) The increasing trend of output gap obviously changed smoothly and presented some appearances of turnover in 2002, which suggested the active fiscal policy which had been implemented from 1998 had significant effects on preventing economy from slowdown and depression. (4)For the period from 1978 to 2002 by using the detrending method and the production method respectively,we can concluded that average potential growth rate.