经济增长与能源消费内在依从关系的实证研究

学术界对经济增长与能源消费二者之间关系的研究,主要以线性关系假设为前提,并未对这一假设是否合理进行严格的经济计量学检验。本文率先将近年来发展的非线性STR模型技术具体应用于我国能源消费与经济增长之间内在结构依从关系的研究,揭示了二者之间复杂而微妙的变化规律,并得出如下几个结论:(1)我国经济增长对能源消费的影响具有非线性特征,并可以通过LSTR2模型来表达。(2)我国经济增长对能源消费的影响具有非对称性。当GDP增长绝对下降时,能源消费比GDP有更快的下降速度;当GDP增长率不超过18·04%时,经济增长对能源消费的影响具有相对稳定性,能源消费对经济增长的弹性为0·9592;当GDP增长率超过18·04%时,能源消费较GDP有更快的增长速度,经济增长完全以能源的高消耗为代价。因此,应尽可能地避免经济的负增长和超高速增长。(3)我国经济增长对能源消费的影响具有明显的阶段性特征。在1956—1976年间,呈现明显的非线性特征;在1977—2005年间,则呈现明显的线性特征。

Empirical Research on the Inherent Relationship between Economy Growth and Energy Consumption in China

In the world economic development, the energy issue has been risen for the strategic hot topic of countries. The research to the relationship between the economical growth and the energy consumption in academic circles continuously took the linear supposition as the premise, by no means to this supposition whether strictly carried on the econometric test reasonably up to now. This article takes the lead to study the intrinsic structure relations between the economical growth and the energy consumption which are profound and complex in China,employed the non-linear STR models which have been developed in recent years. We obtained the following main conclusions: (1) The influence of Chinese economic growth on the energy consumption has the typical non-linear characteristic, and, may express through the LSTR2 model. (2) The influence of Chinese economic growth on the energy consumption has the asymmetry. When the GDP growth appears drops absolutely, the energy consumption compared to GDP has the quicker rate of descent; When the GDP rate of increment does not surpass 18.04%, the influence will have the relative stability, and the elasticity of the energy consumption to the economic growth is 0.9592; When the GDP rate of increment surpasses 18.04%, the energy consumption compared to GDP will have the quicker rate of rise, thus, the economic growth will completely take the high energy consumption as the cost. Therefore, we should avoid the economic negative growth and the super-velocity growth as far as possible. (3) The influence of Chinese economic growth on the energy consumption has the obvious gradual characteristic. During 1956—1976 year, it presented the obvious non-linear characteristic; but during 1977—2005 year, it presented the obvious linear characteristic.