人民币均衡实际汇率的估计与实际汇率错位的测算

基于均衡实际汇率理论 ,本文应用多种经济计量方法实证分析了自 2 0世纪 50年代中期至 2 0 0 0年期间人民币实际汇率状况 ,估计出人民币均衡实际汇率 ,进而测算了实际汇率错位状况。研究结果表明 :在计划经济时期 ,人民币实际汇率长期被高估。改革开放后 ,均衡实际汇率长期处于贬值状况 ,现实的实际汇率长期被低估。在亚洲金融危机期间 (特别是 1 997和 1 998年 ) ,人民币实际汇率出现了明显的高估。 1 999年这种高估状况得到部分缓解 ;2 0 0 0年出现了根本性好转。在现实中 ,1 999年以后中国出口的快速增长也证实了这一结论。

Estimating RMB Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and Measuring Real Exchange Rate Misalignment

Based on the theory of fundamental equilibrium real exchange rate, this paper estimates the equilibrium exchange rate and the resulting misalignments in the PRC during the period of 1955～2000 applying modern econometric methodology. The results indicate that the real exchange rate of RMB was overestimated in the planned economy period until the beginning of the reform and opening. After the reform and opening, the real exchange rate in the PRC was underestimated because of the government interventions. However, during the Asian finance crisis (1997 and 1998), the real exchange rate of RMB was overestimated when the PRC Government adopted non-devaluation policy. The situation of overestimated was partially addressed in 1999 and took a turn for the better in 2000. This conclusion was supported by the rapid increase of the PRC export after 1999.