论体制转轨的动态过程——非国有部门的成长与国有部门的改革

本文试图将中国经济体制转轨所取得的成就和所面临的问题 ,放在一个简化了的动态模型中加以系统地分析。文章指出 ,动态地看 ,体制转轨的根本问题就是非国有经济比重的不断提高和经济的所有制结构的转变。在非国有经济的增长率高于国有经济的增长率的“基本假定”下 ,体制转轨的最重要的问题首先不是改革国有经济 ,而是发展非国有经济。这不仅是由于非国有经济的发展支撑着经济的增长和市场体制的形成 ,而且也是由于它创造出使国有经济得以改革的更有利的条件。国有经济改革的重要性主要在于 ,它们若不改革 ,就还要占用大量资源 ,而且是要从非国有经济转移资源作为事实上对国有经济的补贴。这种补贴在过去一个时期主要体现在银行坏债、资本市场上的“坏股”、非国有经济的“综合税赋”事实的不断提高 ,等等 ,现在也体现在政府债务增大。正因如此 ,尽管中国目前并不面临金融危机 ,但必须加快国有企业和国有银行控制的金融体制的改革进度 ,以保证非国有经济能持续发展下去 ,保证整个体制转轨过程的持续进行而不被某种危机所打断。

On the Dynamic Process of Institutional Transition in China

This paper is an effort to develop a simplified dynamic model to make a systematic analysis of all major achievements and problems of China's economic transition.It shows that, as long as the growth rate of the non state sector is higher than that of the state sector (this paper takes it as the “Basic Presumption of the Reform”),the most important issue of the transition is the development of the non state sector,rather than the reform of the state sector.This is not only because the non state sector can became the major contributor to the marketization and overall economic growth as what happened in China in the past 20 years,but also because the growth of the non state sector will push the reform of more state owned enterprises forward by creating better necessary conditions for that.The reform of the SOEs is important only because otherwise it would use its political power to increase the transfer of resources from the non state sector and therefore reduce the speed of the development of the new system.This is the reason why the actual “tax” burden on the non state secror is increased which is the source of the increasing financial subsidies to SOEs in the forms such as non performing loans and fund raising on the capital market and the increase of the state debt.Although it proves that China is not at the edge of financial crisis,but the reform of the state sector should be speeded up in order to keep the whole transition process on the path to success.