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中国经济增长的可持续性与制度变革
引用本文:王小鲁.中国经济增长的可持续性与制度变革[J].经济研究,2000(7).
作者姓名:王小鲁
作者单位:中国改革基金会国民经济研究所!100038
摘    要:本文旨在评价改革 2 0年来经济增长的整体状况 ,从生产要素、制度变革、结构变动、外部环境等方面分析高速增长的原因 ,判断这些因素的剩余潜力 ,研究制约经济增长的内外部因素 ,从而对中国在今后 2 0年中保持经济持续增长的可能性作出判断。本文认为 ,资本形成加速对过去的高速增长作出了很大贡献 ,但更重要的贡献来自制度变革引起的资源重新配置。目前中国经济正面临增长方式转换的挑战 ,今后 2 0年经济可能保持平均 6 4%的中高速度增长 ,但这取决于若干深层体制改革和政策调整。

关 键 词:经济增长  改革  发展  中国经济

Sustainability of China's Economic Growth and Institutional Changes
Abstract:This paper evaluates the roles of inputs,institutional changes,structural adjustment and external environment in China's economic growth in the past two decades,assesses their remaining capacity in sustaining rapid growth,thus forecasts economic growth in the coming 20 years.It is found that faster capital formation has made an important contribution to the growth,although the more important contribution has been made by resource reallocation that results from institutional changes.The economy is facing challenge in changing into a more technology-leading growth pattern.Subject to further institutional reform and policy adjustment in several areas,the average growth rate may be sustained at as high as 6.4% in the coming two decades.
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