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资本流动性:基于中国及其他亚洲新兴国家的比较分析
引用本文:何德旭,姚战琪,余升国.资本流动性:基于中国及其他亚洲新兴国家的比较分析[J].经济研究,2006(9).
作者姓名:何德旭  姚战琪  余升国
作者单位:中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所,中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所,海南大学经济管理学院
摘    要:衡量发展中国家资本流动性的方法有总量规模法、储蓄—投资相关法、Edwards模型以及货币自主性检验法等四种方法。本文主要运用前三种方法测度了中国改革开放以来资本的流动性,并用前两种方法比较了中国和其他亚洲新兴国家资本流动性的差异。实证结果表明,所有亚洲新兴国家金融市场处于一种开放状态,并且在所有亚洲新兴国家中,中国的资本流动性是最低的。通过运用Kalman滤波技术对中国的资本流动性进行动态分析,并没有发现1997年亚洲金融危机后中国采取更加严格的资本管制对资本流动性产生影响的证据。实证研究发现,在1997年亚洲金融危机爆发前,中国的资本流动性远低于其他亚洲新兴国家。对于发展中国家资本市场的开放来说,采取渐进式改革而不是激进式改革可能更为明智、更加合理。

关 键 词:资本流动性  总量规模法  储蓄投资相关关系  Edwards模型  Kalman滤波

Capital Mobility in China and Other Newly Industrializing Countries in Asia
He Dexua,Yao Zhanqib and Yu Shengguoc.Capital Mobility in China and Other Newly Industrializing Countries in Asia[J].Economic Research Journal,2006(9).
Authors:He Dexua  Yao Zhanqib and Yu Shengguoc
Institution:He Dexu~a,Yao Zhanqi~b and Yu Shengguo~c
Abstract:There are four empirical methods which have been applied to evaluate the capital mobility in developing countries. These include measures of the magnitude of gross capital flows, Edwards model, saving-investment correlations, and the scope for sterilization of the effects of reserve movements on the domestic money supply. This article doesn't only apply the first three tests to assess the degree of capital mobility in China, but also apply the first two methods to make a comparison of capital mobility between China and the other newly industrializing countries(NICs) in Asia, such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. The evidence suggests that all of the NICs in Asia can be considered financially open. The result also suggests that the capital mobility in China is the lowest among the NICs in Asia. Lastly we evaluate the capital mobility in China with Kalman filter. But there is no evidence that the stricter capital mobility regulation in china have taken have more effects after the Asia Crisis in 1997. We also find capital mobility is lower in China than that in the other NICs in Asia which influenced very much in the Asia Crisis before 1997. We draw a conclusion that the step by step measure rather than the jacobinical step is the most suitable policy for the openness of capital market in developing countries.
Keywords:Capital Mobility  Magnitude of Capital Flows  Correlationship between Saving and Investment  Edwards Model  Kalman Filter
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