中国粮食供求变化趋势预测:基于区域化市场均衡模型

本文通过构建一个涉及 1 8种 (类 )主要农产品和 7个地区的中国农产品区域市场均衡模型并基于二种不同情景的模拟分析 ,从全国和地区二个层次上预测和分析了 2 0 0 6年和 2 0 1 0年我国稻谷、小麦和玉米三种粮食的供求形势。模型结果显示 ,未来几年我国粮食供求关系在总体上将保持基本稳定的发展态势 ,国内外粮价回升可使我国粮食生产在近期内取得恢复性增长。预计稻谷、小麦和玉米的总产量将超过 4亿吨 ,粮食自给率在 92 %左右 ,国内粮食产需缺口将维持在目前的 3 50 0万吨左右 ,其中小麦占五分之三 ,玉米将从目前基本平衡转变为净进口。这种供求变化趋势同时也具有明显的区域特征。华东和华南地区粮食缺口规模将不断扩大 ,东北和华北地区将呈现以玉米为主导的快速粮食生产增长态势且超过需求增长 ,中南地区将从短缺转向粮食基本自给 ,西南和西北地区将继续保持现有缺口规模。为现实中国粮食供求的长期稳定与均衡发展 ,本文最后提出了涉及耕地保护、跨省区粮食贸易、国际粮食安全合作、价格增产效应和政府决策科学化等五方面的政策建议

Future Prospects of Grain Supply and Demand in China:A Regionalized Multimarket Model Simulation

Based on China's Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model (CARMEM), the paper projects the production and consumption of rice, wheat and corn in China toward 2010 at both national and regional level under two different scenarios. It showed that the trend of Chinese grain production and consumption would remain stable in general until 2010. A recovery growth of grain production could be achieved in the near future by possible increase of price on both domestic and world market. The total production of rice, wheat and corn will be increased to over 400 million tons. However, the rate of grain self sufficiency will be 92% due to higher demand. A domestic deficit of round 35 million tons would remain, in which wheat accounts for three fifth. China will become a net importer of corn. Moreover, some regional characteristics of the development of grain sector can be also observed obviously. An increasing grain deficit in East and South China would emerge. Northeast and North China will achieve a higher grain growth mainly due to a rapid increase in corn production. South middle China will be able to change its current insufficient situation. The Southwest and Northwest will keep their present quantity of grain deficit continued. Finally, some policy implications for future Chinese grain security are concluded.