地方政府支出与农村居民消费需求变动——以我国省级面板数据为例

本文在理论诠释地方政府支出对农村居民消费需求的传导机制下,通过建立地方政府支出与农村居民消费支出之间的个体固定效应变截距模型,运用我国31个省(市、自治区)1998～2007年的经验数据进行实证检验.结果表明:地方政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费具有显著的挤入效应,而转移性支出与农村居民消费的相关程度并不明显.

The Transmission Mechanism of Local Government Expenditures to Consumer Demand for Rural Residents: Based on Provincial Government Panel Data in China

Under the theoretical interpretation of transmission mechanism of government expenditure on rural residents" consumption demand as well as the theoretical model framework,this paper uses the empirical data of China's 31 provinces to test by establishing the variable intercept model of the fixed effect of local government expenditure on rural residents" consumption demand from 1998 to 2007, and comes to the conclusions: the effect of local government expenditure of supporting agriculture on rural residents" consumption demand is the positive, but the effect of transfer payments on rural residents' consumption demand is not significant. According to theoretical analysis and the conclusions of empirical testing,the article puts forward the specific recommendations about expanding rural residents" consumption in the end.