湘西州农业投入产出模型分析与探讨

利用柯布一道格拉斯生产函数，以1995-2006年数据为基础，对湘西州农业生产的实际情况进行量化分析，以粮食产量为产出因子，选择化肥投入、机械总动力和有效灌溉面积为投入因子，利用LINEST计量经济软件建立投入产出模型。通过多元线性回归模型分析发现，相对化肥投入和机械动力的影响而言，从1995-2006年湘西州粮食产量大幅增加的主导影响因素依然是耕地面积，说明今后湘西州农业生产应做好耕地资源的开源与节流工作，重视农业科技和农业机械化发展，调整施肥方法提高肥料利用率及优化旅游资源，发展现代乡村观光农业。

Analysis on Agricultural Production Input-output Model of Xiangxi Region

The use of Cobb-Douglas production function to data from 1995 to 2006,based on agricultural production in Xiangxi Region to quantify the actual situation,as the output factor in food production,choice of fertilizer input,mechanical power and total effective irrigation area of investment factor,the use of econometric software LINEST establish input-output model.By multiple linear regression model analysis,it showed that compared to the input of chemical fertilizer and mechanical power,from 1995 to 2006,the a substantialdominant factor of food-production increase in Xiangxi Region is still the arable land.In future agricultural production in Xiangxi Region,it should be preparation of arable land resources,revenue and cutting expenditure of work,attention to the development of agricultural technology and agricultural mechanization,fertilization methods to adjust and optimize to improve fertilizer utilization of tourism resources,the development of modern agriculture,rural tourism.