改革背景下军民技术转移三阶演化博弈分析

随着中国军队改革逐步推进，不少拥有较强专业技术能力的干部流入地方企业，使得军队单位对地方企业的技术溢出效应日益显著，成为军民技术转移中不容小觑的影响因素。首先，将地方企业选择单方面技术溢出作为一种策略进行讨论，在此基础上,构建军队转改背景下军民技术转移的三阶演化博弈模型。通过证明该演化博弈模型中微分方程自治系统的平衡点及其稳定条件，从理论上得到该系统所有可能的稳定均衡状态及条件。然后,利用数值算例对该演化博弈模型进行仿真分析，得到军民技术转移供需双方博弈动态演化三维相图，并分析不同参数对演化趋势的影响。最后，为军方单位在军队改革期间，如何保持军民技术合作的稳定性、应对技术溢出等问题提出相应的政策建议。

The Third Order Evolutionary Game Model Technology Transfer

With the China's military reform, some military staff with professional skills are engaged in civil companies, which makes the factor of knowledge spillover become effective and cannot be ignored as usual. In this case, we regard the knowledge spillover as an effect factor and build a third order evolutionary game model of civil-military technology transfer under China's military reform background. Then we find out all the equilibrium points of this model, which provide the theoretical support of all possible equilibrium with their conditions. By using the numerical examples, we conduct the simulation analysis and get the dynamic evolutionary three-dimensional phase diagram. The result indicates that a large amount of military staff engaged in civil companies in a short time will do extremely bad to both sides, while a moderate gradual speed is feasible and will benefit to the development of both military as well as the civil companies. Finally, by analyzing the effect of different parameters on evolutionary trend, we promote policy references to cope with the instability brought by military reform.