国家科技创新活动时序性及其测度研究

目前大多数学者关于科技创新活动的测度指标都是基于能力和绩效，忽视了创新活动的时序性特征，未将时间因素引入测度体系中。从科技创新基础能力、科技创新活动投入、科技创新活动产出3个维度，基于熊彼特创新周期理论，对中日美法德五国科技创新活动进行了实证研究，采用时差分析法将科技创新活动的测度指标分为先行指标、一致指标和滞后指标，构建了具有时差关系的科技创新活动指标体系，揭示了科技创新活动的时序性规律。

Research on the Time Sequence and Measurement of National Science and Technological Innovation Activities---Taking China,Japan,US,France and Germany as Examples

At present,the indexes of science and technology innovation activities are measured based on ability and perform-ance,the temporal characteristics of innovation activities are ignored,nor the time factors are introduced in measurement systems.Taking science and technology innovation activities of five countries as empirical research,this paper constructs index systems of science and technology innovation activities suitable for all countries from the three dimensions of base ca-pabilities ,activities input and output of science and technology innovation based on the innovation cycle theory.The meas-ure indexes of science and technology innovation activities are divided into leading indicators,coincident indicators and lag-ging indicators by using the method of time difference.It establishes the index system of science and technology innovation activities with time difference and reveals the time sequence of science and technology innovation activities.