能源回弹效应下高碳产业低碳转型过程中的技术突变性

考虑能源回弹效应下，分析高碳产业低碳技术突变技术门槛，发现技术碳减排存在由量变到质变的门槛效应，另外还发现能源回弹对门槛效应具有显著影响。运用Hansen门限面板模型、结合CD生产函数的能源回弹模型发现：①不考虑能源回弹效应，高碳产业低碳化过程中的技术突变存在两个门槛；②考虑能源回弹作用，将减少为一个门槛，并且将延长高碳产业完成低碳技术突变所需时间。因此，为加快高碳产业低碳技术突变，有效减少碳排放，一方面应缓解能源回弹效应的影响，对能源回弹效应较大的高碳产业采取实时监控，对能源回弹较小的高碳产业采取定期检查和不定期抽检方式监控；货币政策、财政政策和产业政策相互配合，在高碳产业拉动经济增长的同时，最大限度控制能源回弹效应。另一方面，市场手段和政府职能双管齐下，协助企业低碳技术升级和设备改造，优化税收结构，弥补低碳技术升级导致的负外部性，完善高碳产业转移或市场退出机制。

Technological Abrupt Change in the Process of Low Carbon Transformation in High-carbon Industry considering Energy Rebound Effect

Specifically,considering the rebound effect of energy,the technological threshold of low-carbon technology mutations in the high-carbon industry is analyzed.On the one hand,it indicates that the threshold effect of technological carbon emission reduction has changed from qualitative to qualitative change.Effect.Using the energy rebound model of the Hansen threshold panel model combined with the CD production function,it is found that:①if the energy rebound effect is not considered,then there are two thresholds for technological mutations in the low-carbon process of the high-carbon industry;②if energy is considered The rebound effect will be reduced to a threshold,and the time required for the high-carbon industry to complete the mutation of low-carbon technology will be extended.Therefore,in order to accelerate the mutation of low-carbon technologies in the high-carbon industry and effectively reduce carbon emissions,on the one hand,the impact of the energy rebound effect must be alleviated.For high-carbon industries with large energy rebound effects,real-time monitoring is adopted,and the energy rebound is high The carbon industry adopts regular inspection and irregular sampling inspection to monitor; monetary policy,fiscal policy and industrial policy cooperate with each other to maximize the control of the energy rebound effect while the high-carbon industry drives economic growth.On the other hand,the market approach and government functions go hand in hand,assisting enterprises with low-carbon technology upgrades and equipment transformation,optimizing tax structures,making up for the negative externalities caused by low-carbon technology upgrades,and improving high-carbon industry transfer or exit market mechanisms.