消费结构升级、政府支持与区域科技创新能力：空间视角下的分析

基于2009-2018年中国省级空间面板数据，运用空间杜宾模型,重点分析了空间视角下消费结构升级、政府支持与科技创新能力的多重关系。研究发现：①当前我国消费结构升级与区域科技创新能力呈现U型关系，即在消费结构处于较低阶段时，其与科技创新能力提升呈负相关关系，而当消费结构升级到一定高度，这种负向关系转变为正向关系；②政府支持与科技创新能力呈现倒U型关系，即当科技创新水平较低时，政府支持有利于科技创新能力提升，当科技创新能力发展到一定程度后，政府支持开始成为制约因素。在考虑发现①的基础上，可以认为政府支持下呈现的倒U型曲线与消费取向的阶段性变化密切相关，即当消费结构处于较低阶段时政府支持发挥了弥补市场不足的作用，而当消费市场转向有利于创新发展时，过度的政府支持会对自由市场产生挤出效应，从而不利于创新能力发展；③在空间溢出上，地理距离矩阵下呈现出与发现①和发现②相似的关系，经济距离矩阵下呈现出与发现②相似的关系。

Consumption Structure Upgrading,Government Support and Technological Innovation Ability: An Analysis from a Space Perspective

Based on 2009-2017 China's provincial spatial panel data,this paper focuses on analyzing the multiple relationships between consumption structure upgrading,government support,and scientific and technological innovation capabilities through the use of the spatial Dubin model. The research finds that: (1) At present,there is a U-shaped relationship between the consumption structure upgrading and regional scientific and technological innovation capabilities.,That is,when the consumption structure is at a lower stage,it has a negative correlation with the improvement of scientific and technological innovation capabilities,and when the consumption structure is upgraded to a certain height,this negative relationship turns into a positive connection. (2) Government support has an inverted U-shaped relationship with scientific and technological innovation capabilities. That is,when the level of scientific and technological innovation capabilities is low,government support is conducive to the promotion of scientific and technological innovation capabilities. When scientific and technological innovation capabilities have developed to a certain extent,government support has become a limiting factor. We believe that the inverted U-shaped curve presented by government support is closely related to the gradual changes in consumption orientation,that is,when the consumption structure is at a lower stage,government support has played a role in making up for market deficiencies. When the consumer market turns to be conducive to innovation and development,excessive government support will have a " Crowding-out Effect" on the free market,which is not conducive to the development of innovation capabilities. (3) On space overflow,the geographic distance matrix shows a similar relationship with discovery (1) and discovery (2),and the economic distance matrix shows a similar relationship with discovery (2).