人工智能对制造企业是否存在“生产率悖论”

在新一轮科技变革和产业革命背景下，人工智能已深度融入国民经济各产业，成为产业发展的重要驱动力。人工智能能否促进制造企业生产率提升，已成为新时代中国制造业高质量发展的关键。利用2015—2017年中国A股制造业上市公司相关数据，实证检验人工智能对制造企业生产率的影响，构建基于结构方程的多重中介效应模型，分析制造企业应用人工智能技术影响生产率的内在机制及路径。研究发现，人工智能提升了制造企业生产率；市场份额对人工智能与制造企业生产率的关系有显著负向调节作用；人工智能通过劳动力数量、物质资本使用效率和技术创新产出3种中介变量显著促进企业生产率提升，并通过人力资本使用效率和技术创新投入抑制企业生产率提升。

The Impacts of Artificial Intelligence on the Productivity of Manufacturing Firms: Is There a Productivity Paradox

In the context of a new round of scientific and technological changes and industrial revolution, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been deeply integrated into various industries and become an important driving force for industrial development. Whether AI can promote the productivity of manufacturing firms has become the key to realize the high-quality development of China's manufacturing industry in the new era. We examine the impacts of AI on the productivity by using the data of Chinese listed manufacturing firms from 2015 to 2017, and build a multiple mediating effect model to analyze the mechanism. The results show that AI improves the productivity of manufacturing firms and market share has a significant negative moderating effect on the relationship between AI and the productivity. Further research of the mechanism shows that AI promotes the productivity through three mediating variables: the quantity of labor, the efficiency of material capital and the output of technological innovation, meanwhile inhibits the productivity through the efficiency of human capital and the input of technological innovation.