科技成果产业化目标市场评估与选择模型研究

在分析国内外目标市场评估与选择理论研究现状及其存在问题的基础上，构建了基于系统动力学(SD)的目标市场评估与选择过程控制模型；明确了科技成果产业化目标市场评估系统边界，并采用战略环境评估方法，从宏观环境支持程度、产业环境威胁力及内部资源条件满足程度等方面识别出24个营销绩效影响因素，形成了SD模型的基准变量；然后构建了科技成果产业化目标市场发展提升过程因果关系图、流图、量化分析方程，形成了SD系统结构模型，刻画出影响因素与科技成果产业化营销绩效的动态反馈规律；最后结合某高分子材料类科技成果产业化实际，对其目标市场评估SD模型进行了vensim软件模拟，并基于目标市场发展水平及稳定性模拟结果，提出了科技成果产业化目标市场选择方案，为高等院校和科研院所科技成果产业化目标市场评估与选择提供借鉴。

Research on Evaluation and Selection Model of Target Market for Industrialization of Scientific and Technological Achievements of the Institutes

Based on analysis of the current situation of target market evaluating and selecting both at home and abroad,this paper firstly constructed the target market evaluation and selection process control model based on the theory of system dynamics(SD).Secondly,we cleared the system boundary and according to the method of strategic environmental assessment 24marketing performance factors were comprehensively identified as the benchmark variables,which were from macro environment support level,industry environment challenges and internal resources satisfaction.Then this study built causal diagrams,system flow chart and quantitative equation of the target markets development which constituted the SD system structure model,and also we characterized the dynamic feedback laws between factors and industrialization marketing performance of scientific and technological achievements.Finally,according to industrialization of polymer material,vensim simulation was carried out on its target market evaluation and selection SD model.At the same time,we put forward the selecting option which based on the simulated results of target market’s developmental level and stability,and offer some help to improve target market evaluating and selecting of industrialization of science and technology production.