专利质押贷款风险动态监控预警研究

专利质押贷款为科技型中小企业提供了一种有效的融资方式，但是由于资产规模等问题，专利质押融资风险远高于其它抵押贷款方式，因此需要在贷款后对企业还贷风险进行实时动态监控预警。首先建立了科技型中小企业贷款风险预警指标体系，并依据Kalman滤波理论建立了风险动态预警模型，确定了企业还贷能力由健康到轻度危机再到重度危机的两个分割点，进而检测企业贷款偿还能力从健康-财务波动-财务危机的演变轨迹。实证研究表明，该模型的总体判别准确率较高，预警效果好。 

Dynamic Crisis Early Warning of Patent backed Loan for SMEs

Patent backed loan provides an effective financing way for technology based small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs), but due to problems such as asset scale, patent backed financing risk is far higher than the other mortgage loan, so it is necessary to carry out a real time dynamic monitoring for the financial position of borrowers, so as to respond to loan risk in a timely manner. This paper establishes a dynamic crisis early warning model based on Kalman filtering theory, and defines two critical points by the health to mild warning and the mild warning to severe crisis. This model is used to detect the evolution path of financial failure for technology based SMEs. The empirical study shows that the model has a high discriminant accuracy, the overall warning effect is very good.