基于状态空间模型的政产学研资协同创新四螺旋影响因素实证研究

在三螺旋理论框架下，搭建政府、产业、大学、研究机构和资本部门四螺旋模型，运用文献归纳法选取多元主体协同创新6类影响因素，以主体间协同程度测度结果为因变量基础，利用状态空间模型动态分析这些因素影响方向、大小和趋势。实证结果表明，中国经济因素表现为促进作用持续提升；中国技术市场规模和创新产业规模表现为先抑制后促进，且促进作用不断提升；中国产品市场需求和创新投入表现为抑制作用持续提升；中国创新产出在时间上表现为促进作用先提升后下降并最终稳定的状态。最后，提出不同政策建议，以促进中国政产学研资协同创新体系后续发展。

The Empirical Study of Synergetic Innovation Quadruple Helix based on State Space mode

Based on the triple helix theory, the study built a quadruple helix model of synergy innovation which includes government, industry, university and research institutes, and capital department. The study chooses 6 kind of influence factors by using literature induction. Then, the study uses the synergy degree of synergy innovation as dependent variable. Finally, the study dynamically analyzes the influence direction, influence magnitude and influence trend of these factors by using state space mode. The results shows that, first, Chinese economic factor is promotion with continuous improvement. Second, Chinese technology market size and innovation industry scale are first inhibition after promotion, and the promotion is continuously improving. Third, Chinese product market demand and innovation input are inhibition, and the inhibition is continuously improving. Finally, Chinese innovation output shows the promoting role, and the promotion improves first, and declines after, and stay stable at last. This study also puts forward different policy proposals to promote Chinese synergetic innovation based on the results of dynamic analysis.